Brent X. Donnelly
Contributor
Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker, and and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, is now available in bookstores worldwide.
Brent writes a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX and has experience as both a sell-side trader (HSBC, Citibank, Lehman Brothers) and as a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund in Connecticut. He trades tactical global macro. He has been quoted by The Economist, WSJ, Zerohedge, FT, CNBC and others.
Check out his substacks at:
https://50in50.substack.com/ and https://fridayspeedrun.substack.com/
Articles by Brent

The trading / gambling spectrum
By Brent Donnelly
|May 1, 2025
Brent Donnelly surveyed almost 2,000 active traders about work and life. The results are fascinating and Brent's advice is wonderful!

One Less Vulnerability
By Brent Donnelly
|October 5, 2023
Yes, this is a note about oil prices. But more importantly it's a note about all the changes in correlation and transmission to FX that have happened over the past few years.

Hagakure: The Secret Wisdom of the Samurai
By Brent Donnelly
|July 28, 2023
This is the Way.
Not just for the samurai but for the trader.

Fostering Reality in an Unreal World
By Brent Donnelly
|July 5, 2023
ET contributor Brent Donnelly captures the spirit and the content of our Epsilon Connect conference better than anything we could have done ourselves. Plus you get the slides from our presentations!

Trading is a lot like Poker
By Brent Donnelly
|May 16, 2023
With the passing of Doyle Brunson, it's a good day to compare poker to trading.

Dedollarization is Not a Thing
By Brent Donnelly
|March 31, 2023
People like to throw around the phrase “gradually, then suddenly” as a witty rejoinder to suggest a dedollarization of the world is a nonlinear process that will unfold any day now. That only sounds smart when Hemingway says it.
There is no structural dollar depreciation or dedollarization story. Global usage of the USD is stable and changes in the value of the USD are cyclical.

Why the Yankees Sucked in August
By Brent Donnelly
|September 15, 2022
"The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular."
That was Edward Gibbon in 1774. This is ET contributor Brent Donnelly saying the same thing but in a much more entertaining way in 2022.

Before You Fly The Nest: Advice for kids heading to college
By Brent Donnelly
|August 5, 2022
ET contributor Brent Donnelly went out and asked some people he respects what advice they would give kids heading off to college. Here's what he found.

The Most Important Trading Decision
By Brent Donnelly
|May 10, 2022
Trading is hard. Your odds of success are heavily influenced by the seat you choose. Retail trader or bank trader or PM, here are metrics to evaluate that seat.

Money Can Buy Happiness (in variable and diminishing quantities)
By Brent Donnelly
|April 6, 2022
What does your money/happiness curve look like? Is it curved or linear? Does it flatline somewhere? If so, where?
There's the game of trading and the metagame of life. To win the latter, you have to Know Thyself.
Winner's Tilt
By Brent Donnelly
|March 31, 2022
The most damaging stories and narratives are not those that others tell us, but those that we tell ourselves.

That Funny Feeling
By Brent Donnelly
|January 10, 2022
The AI censors at YouTube banned a video by ET contributor Brent Donnelly for all the wrong reasons.
Meanwhile, the AI censors at Twitter won't ban an impersonator for any reason.
Kinda gives you that funny feeling that we're being played. Again.

Unanchored
By Brent Donnelly
|September 15, 2021
ET contributor Brent Donnelly starts up where he left off, with a new launch of AM/FX and a new riff on the classic ET note, "Snip!".
In the immortal words of Hunter S. Thompson, when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro!

Notes from Camp Kotok 2021
By Brent Donnelly
|August 27, 2021
ET contributor Brent Donnelly with an end-of-summer compilation of the top--of-mind topics at Camp Kotok!

Day-One Advice for New Hedge Fund Portfolio Managers
By Brent Donnelly
|June 25, 2021
Over the last 6 months, there's been a mass influx of new hedge fund PMs, many from bank trading seats leaving for greener (?) pastures. I've been in both seats. I've had good years and disappointing years. So I present this advice with the utmost humility ...

I'm Trying To Understand Hedonic Adjustments
By Brent Donnelly
|May 11, 2021
A Honda Accord cost $12,000 in 1990 and it costs $25,000 now.
A Mustang was $9,000 and now it’s $27,000.
The BLS has new car prices close to unchanged over the past 30 years.
ET contributor Brent Donnelly tries to wrap his brain around hedonic adjustments to CPI.

Bitcoin Market Profile
By Brent Donnelly
|April 28, 2021
ET contributor Brent Donnelly gives a crash course in Market Profile analysis and applies it to Bitcoin since the Coinbase IPO.
A Conversation with Howard Marks
By Brent Donnelly
|March 17, 2021
ET contributor Brent Donnelly talks with Howard Marks about why traditional value investing is likely permanently impaired as a strategy and why Growth vs. Value is a false dichotomy. Boomshakalaka!