An in-depth look at the interdependence of inflation, Treasury supply, and the Fed reaction function.

Bottom line: inflation is the Fed's kryptonite.

What’s happening now in equity markets isn’t the product of some paradigmatic democratization of finance. It’s just another bubble that will end badly.

ET contributor Pete Cecchini isn't buying the reflation / small-cap rally narrative, even with a mini Blue Wave.

The merger between the Treasury and Fed is now complete with Janet Yellen’s apparent appointment as the Secretary of the Treasury. Let the self-fulfilling market narratives begin!

It may be a brave new world of Davey Day Trader, but it’s not enough to convince yours truly to drink Huxley's soma. Or the Fed's SOMA (System Open Market Account).

If you've never seen the 1963 comedy "It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World", do yourself a favor and check it out. Phil Silvers and Spencer Tracy and Ethel Merman and Jonathan Winters? Yes, please.

ET contributor Pete Cecchini remembers. Better yet, it's the perfect foil for figuring out a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad Market.

Written during last week's sell-off, ET Contributor Peter Cecchini coins a phrase - The Portnoy Top.

What do you get when you combine Barstool Sports and Printer Goes Brrr?

ET Contributor Pete Cecchini looks at the monetary and fiscal policy stimulus coming out of Washington and sees a staggering price to pay in lost real growth and massive institutional corruption.

ET contributor Peter Cecchini makes a strong case that the Fed is playing a dangerous game with its constant use of the "exigent circumstances" exception to Section 14 of the Federal Reserve Act.

Does the alphabet soup of new facilities and SPVs established by the Fed in recent weeks amount to an illegal taking of assets? It's a reasonable question.

Even more reasonable: if not here, where do you draw the line?

The oil narrative is not as it seems.

The White House and others assume the Saudis and Russians are at odds. Don't be so sure. Their interests are aligned around disabling U.S. production. Period.

New from ET contributor Pete Cecchini ...

We talk all the time about the informational efficiency of markets. What if the real dimension we should focus on is narrative efficiency?

Negative rates create a cycle of addiction to even more negative rates in the future.

Why? Because captive buyers like pension funds require capital appreciation to make up for negative yield, so central banks must guarantee a commitment to still more negative yields.

New from ET contributor Pete Cecchini!

The desire of central banks to forestall recession at all costs reminds us of the war that groundskeeper Carl Spackler had with the gopher in Caddyshack.

Sure, you can defeat the gopher. But you've gotta blow up the golf course with dynamite to do it.

The recent rally in U.S. equities is largely a result of market participants believing they can have their rate-cut cake and eat it, too.

ET contributor Pete Cecchini doesn't think the Fed will cut rates proactively. Will they cut? Sure. But only if the real-world economic data deteriorates further. Which it probably will.

But don't eat that cake just yet.

At some point, all Fed Chairs learn that their primary function is just to wave their hands. Jay Powell has learned this sooner than most.

ET contributor Pete Cecchini goes way off the Wall Street reservation with this: the bullish narrative for U.S. equity risk makes sense only if one accepts a narrative that the Fed will proactively move to prevent a U.S. slowdown before it happens.

Don't believe it.

It all started with the Maestro, Alan Greenspan, and his determination to create a Great Moderation. And it was all going so swimmingly, too, until the Great Disaster of 2008.

Now that there's so little central banks can do, they are dead set on preventing another downturn before it even starts. So how does risk ‘price’ in capital markets when the cost of capital is constantly set too low? It doesn't.

A generation of investors has Paul Volcker to thank for almost 40-years of slowly falling rates. He handed countless baby-boomers a free 100 points of investing IQ, for which most never thanked him. It was as good as it gets.

ET contributor Pete Cecchini, better known as Cantor Fitzgerald's Chief Market Strategist, is back with the December installment of his series, In the Trenches. For ET readers who want a less philosophical but no less smart take on markets, Pete's your guy.

In the first note from new Epsilon Theory contributor Peter Cecchini of Cantor Fitzgerald, Peter gives us a window into what a false sense of stability may mean for investors heading into the end of 2018.